HWBL - An Analysis of Costs

A friend of mine, who most of you already know, Jared Nieters, has created a monster in the local cycling community. His Haymarket Winter Bike League has seen incredible attendance after the first two editions.

Jared "Robot" Nieters

I take credit for the concept, as it was yours truly who came up with the original idea for the Battle of Bull Run of 2010, but Jared has taken things a step further. A large dose of promotion, some swag, and post-"race" coupons have filled up the sign in sheets both of the first two weekends, despite less than ideal conditions. 

Jared is a bicycle shop owner, avid racer, and self proclaimed french toast-making expert. Jared and I have a lot of things in common. We both live west of Warrenton, we both race cyclocross in the Fall, and we both like Vermont (though only Jared can claim he actually heralds from the state.) Despite our likeness however, we have our differences.

Jared has a penchant for getting up early, and riding his bike fast, two things that I generally try to avoid this time of year. It seems as though Jared's desire to get up early, and ride his bike fast, infiltrated his event planning for the Haymarket Winter Bike League. The start time each week is 8:00 a.m. The speed is fast. 

I happily attended the first edition of the event, but last night, I decided that I was going to sit the second round out. The forecasted temperature at the start time was a frosty 23 degrees, and I have been recovering from a mid-week stomach bug that had me forgo some of my week's training plans. 

I was sitting straight up in bed this morning, scowling at my alarm clock that was displaying 6:00 - not a time I enjoy seeing very often. After scanning the forecast, I determined that I was going to renege on my previous decision, and go to the Winter Bike League ride. Mind you, this was not a decision I made on a whim. As a student of economics, I have learned to think like an economist. I think this makes a lot of my day to day decisions more calculated. 

I made a sort of mental chart, that looked something like this:

Opportunity Costs of HWBL                                    Benefits of HWBL

*Extra Sleep                                                                *

*Warmer Temperatures                                               *

*A civil pace                                                               *    

Typically, I would deduce by this chart, that I will not be attending said event. The costs associated with forgoing my alternative activities (sleep and riding later), obviously outweigh my benefit, or lack thereof, from attending the ride. For whatever reason, I made my way downstairs and started getting my stuff ready to go anyway. 

As the wind stung my face on our rollout, I thought about how I could quantify my decision. The temperature as we rolled hovered right around 20 degrees. The forecasted high for the day was 33. I suppose you could say that my marginal benefit of riding in warmer temperatures was increasing at a slow enough rate that the cost of staying home from the ride exceeded my marginal benefit of incremental increases in temperature throughout the day. In that case, it would make sense for me to stay home. 

I think the real answer though, is, that I just can't say no to a good race ride.